Venezuela, Next Greenland?
“Western Hemisphere Security Through the Lens of the U.S. NSS 2025” and the US NSS 2025
- Arctic Ocean, Rare-earth elements, etc. … Economic Security × National Security
- ‘Western Hemisphere’ security stabilization featured in U.S. National Security Strategy 2025
“The United States has no right to occupy Greenland,”
Following U.S. President Donald Trump’s statement on the 4th that “Greenland is necessary for U.S. defense,” the Danish Prime Minister issued a direct statement. This can be interpreted as considering the possibility that the U.S. might forcibly subjugate Greenland, similar to how it invaded Venezuela and arrested Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro (suspended from office).
The U.S. had previously outlined ‘Focusing on Western Hemisphere Security for National Interest’ in its National Security Strategy 2025 last year, and actions stemming from this appear to have led to the invasion of Venezuela.
Where might it be next? Some media outlets are pointing to Cuba and Greenland as the next targets.
- Why is the U.S. bringing up ‘Western Hemisphere’ stabilization?
- A revival of the ‘Vienna system’ & ‘Monroe Doctrine’?
Understanding the Implications of US NSS 2025 for Regional Stability
- Vienna system: Balance of power, multilateral consultative bodies, maintaining a world order centered on great powers… Realist politics
- Monroe Doctrine: A unilateral U.S. declaration… Separation of Old World-New World spheres of influence, safeguarding liberalism and republicanism
America’s declaration of stabilization in the Western Hemisphere resembles the Monroe Doctrine. However, the mutual recognition of spheres of influence between the US, China, and Russia mirrors the Vienna System.
Through the Monroe Doctrine and the Vienna System, we project today’s and tomorrow’s international landscape.
- Next up: Cuba? Greenland? Colombia?
The arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro (suspended from office) is being received as a highly shocking event in the international community. It confirms the United States’ strong will to firmly secure the Western Hemisphere.
“President Trump has mentioned Cuba, Colombia, and even Greenland as the next targets.“
Colombia is known as a pro-American nation among South American countries, but recent analysis suggests its diplomatic relations with the U.S. have deteriorated. This follows the new government’s opposition to the Trump administration’s deportation of illegal immigrants, creating a point of contention.
While military operations against Cuba may be feasible, many analysts believe Colombia would be difficult. Greenland appears virtually impossible; the situation is more likely to be resolved through economic compensation or negotiations rather than military action. Greenland is a Danish territory, and Denmark is both a NATO member and a member of the European Union.
Cuba is geographically close to the US, and considering its long history of poor relations with the US, military action is considered highly probable and also highly likely to succeed.
However, Colombia elected its president through democratic procedures and enjoys high public support. Therefore, a military operation like the one in Venezuela would be difficult both in terms of justification and considering the potential subsequent national backlash. Consequently, regime change could be achieved through cooperation with Colombia’s opposition political forces, supported by U.S. military presence within Colombia.
- ‘Complete Isolation’ … The U.S. Aims for the Next Target
“The American continent lies between the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. The sea embodies the concept of expansion, yet conversely, it also carries the concept of isolation.“
For the U.S., focused on the Western Hemisphere and facing the decline of its shipping and shipbuilding industries, the concept of isolation may be particularly potent. Well aware of this, the U.S. must embark on a new challenge to revive its shipbuilding and shipping industries.
- Ukraine, Taiwan… Facing an Uncertain Future?
The U.S. is passive in supporting Ukraine, and while it is proactive about defending Taiwan, whether it will take action remains uncertain.
Some experts offer various interpretations regarding a potential U.S. invasion of Venezuela. The most prominent interpretation speculates that the U.S. would exercise its right to self-defense in the Western Hemisphere, tolerating Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and even partially tolerating a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
Considering the significant negative impact China’s invasion and occupation of Taiwan would have on U.S. Pacific security, it is difficult to agree with the above interpretation. However, it is considered highly likely that the U.S. will tolerate a significant portion of China and Russia’s diplomatic and security strategies.
- South Korea Emphasizes ‘Strategic Autonomy’ … Securing Maximum National Interests in the Economic Security Landscape
On the 4th, President Lee Jae-myung emphasized strategic autonomy during his state visit to China. Strategic autonomy can be defined as pragmatic realism centered on national interests, signifying a direction to maximize national interests amid the U.S.-China hegemonic competition.
To achieve this, Korea must become indispensable to both the U.S. and China. For instance, this involves accepting U.S. tariff negotiations or investment demands while simultaneously managing and minimizing potential conflicts with China.
Indeed, under the Lee Jae-myung administration, South Korea has been recognized as the United States’ most trusted ally and partner. Simultaneously, by choosing a state visit to China as its first diplomatic engagement of the new year, it has sought to improve relations with China.
While the outcomes of the South Korea-China summit and state visit to China announced so far (as of the 5th) are not yet clear, China appears to have somewhat alleviated its diplomatic isolation through this summit diplomacy. South Korea, meanwhile, can be seen as attempting to set a course toward strategic autonomy.
The Kairos
Leave a Reply