Will South Korea’s independent diplomatic strategy benefit the U.S.-ROK alliance?

In an article, Foreign Policy (FP) published the views of two experts with opposing opinions on South Korea’s foreign strategy.
Professor Ramon Pacheco Pardo of King’s College London, UK, and Scott A. Snyder of the American Foreign Service Association.

FP looks at three key issues in the U.S.-South Korea alliance.

1. Can a mid-sized country like South Korea pursue an independent foreign policy when it relies on a major power for security guarantees?
2. Does South Korea prefer autonomy or security alliance, and is it looking for a balance?
3. Is the security alliance the United States is seeking not a one-way street, and can it be sustained?

Grand Strategy: The integration of military and non-military elements to preserve and advance a nation’s long-term national interests.

• THOTH Newsroom understands the concept of grand strategy as introduced in the FP as a strategy for its own diplomatic course for national interests. This is not a complete definition, but it reflects as much as possible what is listed in the FP.

Ramón Pacheco Pardo, “South Korea’s Grand Strategy Has Many Positives”
Scott Snyder, “South Korea’s Grand Strategy is a Negative for the U.S.-ROK Alliance”

The two diplomatic experts seem to have a different understanding of South Korea’s conservative and liberal regimes and their respective diplomatic paths toward the United States.

Ramon Pacheco Pardo acknowledges that there is a relatively strong political consensus among both conservative and liberal governments that the U.S.-South Korea alliance is beneficial on balance.
Scott Snyder, on the other hand, notes that a progressive government in South Korea could weaken the alliance as it seeks more South Korean autonomy over U.S. interests and priorities.

The differences between the two men’s views of the South Korean government’s economic, diplomatic, and security paths are evident.

The tension between alliances over the pursuit of autonomy is not unique to South Korea. France is a prime example. During the Cold War, France pursued a relatively independent diplomatic course.

Scott Snyder, What could happen if U.S. troops are withdrawn from the Korean Peninsula?

1. It could increase the likelihood of conflict between North and South Korea and reduce U.S. military capabilities in the region.
2. It could have a direct impact on Japanese security by making the Korean Peninsula a primary route for attacks on the Japanese mainland.
3. China would view the withdrawal of U.S. troops from South Korea as a revision of its foreign and security policy in the Asia-Pacific, and would prepare to invade Taiwan.
4. The United States would lose the foothold on the Asian mainland provided by South Korea, sacrificing U.S. interests in Asia, the Indo-Pacific region, and expanding Chinese influence.

The Era of Economic Security: U.S. vs China

FP predicts that the future of the U.S.-ROK alliance will be shaped by an era of economic and security competition between the U.S. and China, fueled by technological rivalry, trade disputes, and hegemonic competition.

1. Changing bipolar power structures in the United States and China
2. The U.S.-China partnership: domestic political power, narrow definition of national interest, and possible confrontation… Trump’s diplomatic path?

Ramon Pacheco Pardo’s view… Korea’s economic, security, and diplomatic routes leaning toward the U.S.

In our view, successive South Korean governments have generally maintained an economic, security, and diplomatic course that has tilted toward the United States. This is because all successive governments have pursued autonomy while maintaining similarities with the U.S. diplomatic and security routes, and have established policies in consultation with the United States.

In particular, both the public and major political parties in South Korea recognize the balancing benefits of the U.S.-ROK alliance in the context of the U.S.-China hegemonic rivalry, and are in favor of U.S. public checks.

There is no doubt that the benefits of the alliance are significant for South Korea’s national interests, especially in terms of economic growth and the evolution of the financial environment, and businesses and the private sector have adapted to the direction of U.S. economic and security policy.

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